It was 9.22” above the long-term average, and, after transforming from a gamma to a Gaussian distribution, it was 3.3 standard deviations above the median May value.It was Oklahoma’s wettest of 121 Mays on record, and wettest of 1,445 months on record, since 1895.“Second warmest out of 121 on record” immediately and intuitively places a year (or month, or season) into historical context, providing a shortcut answer to the question “how unusual was it?”įor example, both of the following statements are true for the 14.06 inches of rain, on average, that fell across my native state of Oklahoma during May 2015: How does this event that we just experienced fit with what we know about the past, or what we expect in the future? What are the patterns? What are the relationships? The Beauty of Ranks Instead of contextualizing the magnitude of a threat, climate monitoring deals in time-in historical context. Subtle climate changes and variations don’t trigger our real-time animal-threat instincts, but they do strongly impact our well-being, personal and shared. This means time takes on much more meaning in how we assess climate. This helps us understand the magnitude of these threats.Ĭlimate, in a way of thinking, is weather times time. We define thresholds for gale conditions or severe thunderstorms. The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes tropical storms (it’s not just Hurricane Ike, but Category 4 Hurricane Ike). In weather, we often use context to define the magnitude of a threat. Context is often more important to learning than the information itself. Put another way, we seek context when we process new information. This ability to combine information in predictive ways is one reason we have nice things, while bears live in caves. Recent rainfall and the amount typically needed by blueberry bushes become companion pieces of information important to our blueberry outlook and related actions. We thrive by recognizing trends and relationships between vastly separate streams of data.Ī bear can identify a blueberry bush a human can also identify the bush, but additionally knows that watering it when needed will increase the yield. This keeps us (and bears) from walking into fires. As animals, we use real-time information to identify threats. Let’s start with something light, like some comparative psychology. So why do we use them? The Power of Context In fact, using ranks can really over-emphasize their importance. In the big picture, the actual rank of an individual year isn’t that important. This week, going Beyond the Data, we’ll unpack what that first-place ranking really means. Two weeks ago, I wrote about 2015’s chances of dethroning 2014 as the warmest year on record and how the maturing El Niño increases those odds.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |